It’s not looking good for the Republican naysayers who have insisted, no matter how many times their predictions of doom and gloom for Obamacare have proven to be wrong, the law is about to fail. They are still insisting that there is no chance that the enrollment goal of 6 million can be reached by the March 31 deadline.
The latest forecast made by Charles Gaba on his blog, acasignups.net is that enrollment is on a pace to actually exceed that goal by approximately half a million. Opponents of the law have tied their last ditch hopes for the law’s failure to the assumption that the goal of 6 million could not be reached by the deadline and with that goal in sight have nothing left, they know that this was the last chance they had to get rid of the law.
Gaba has been very accurate in his earlier projections as the right cheered every misstep and minor setback each time calling it the end for the law, or as they began calling it when the roll-out of the federal website proved to be less than a resounding success, the “death spiral” of the law.
At that time, as Chris Hayes pointed out Tuesday on MSNBC’s All In, the accepted wisdom on the right was that with a website that was experiencing serious problems only the old and the sick would sign up for insurance making the whole plan an actuarial nightmare that would die of its own weight.
They have not backed off from those predictions even as the data began to show that people were signing up and that a significant number of those who were signing up are healthy young people.
Gaba’s graph includes enrollments through exchanges, Medicaid expansion and those under 26 who can now remain on their parents’ insurance. More importantly, it shows that as of Monday enrollment had passed the 5 million mark putting it in a very good position to reach the CBO goal by the end of the month.
Much to the dismay of the Republicans who have been predicting the law’s demise, according to Forbes Magazine health benefits consultants say that the number who have enrolled are enough already to make the ACA work, even though the numbers are still short of what the President had hoped for.
On All In Avik Roy, opinion editor at Forbes who was skeptical of the chances for success admitted that both sides have been wrong about the law and its chances of succeeding.
“In fairness, Chris, a lot of liberals were also worried about the so called death spiral,” he said, “and they were always wrong, both sides, both the conservatives who were cheering it on and liberals who were scared about it, because the subsidies do provide a cushion that prevent a true death spiral from occurring.”
He does caution about taking the numbers at face value, since some who have signed up may not yet have paid for the policies they have signed up for and until they do they are not actually insured and because many of those who have signed up and paid were previously insured so they do not count as newly insured.
Jonathan Cohn, of the New Republic pointed out that we won’t know for some time exactly how well the law is working, using the roll-out of Romneycare in Massachusetts as an example, it too had hiccups in its early days and needed tweaking to work the kinks out but eventually it smoothed out and now runs smoothly.
What all of this comes down to is that it is time for Republicans to stop talking about repealing Obamacare and start talking about what can be done to fix the problems that it does have. No one is denying that there are changes that should be made to the law to improve it but the time for acceptance has arrived. When the clock has run out on the game there is no point in continuing to deny that you have lost, and on the ACA the Republicans have lost all that is left is for them to admit it.
Watch the conversation in the video below from All In.