Democratic front runner Hillary Clinton barely edges out presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in a newly released general election match up poll conducted among Florida voters. Clinton comes in with 45 percent support to Trump’s 42 percent, with 7 percent of voters self-identifying as undecided and a whopping 6 percent of voters saying that they would vote for newly chosen Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson.
As The Hill reports:
‘Mason-Dixon Polling & Research conducted its poll of 625 registered voters in Florida via landline telephone interviews from May 31 to June 2. It has a 4 percent margin of error.’
Mason Dixon Polling & Research is given a B + rating for accuracy and reliability from the analysts at Five Thirty Eight, meaning that the results are pretty spot on.
The margin of error, that number which represents the size of the potential difference between the reported numbers and the actual numbers, is, as noted 4 percent. What that means is that Clinton’s supposed lead over Trump is really a statistical tie, since the margin of her lead is only 3 percent.
Indeed, Clinton and Trump have come into flat out conflict with each other ever since Trump won the Indiana Republican primary and became the presumptive Republican nominee. Because of this conflict, the general election race has become dramatically close across the board before it has even started.
Florida, for the record, is rated pretty much consistently by the election models as a toss up state in November. Clinton holding onto it in the general election, along with Ohio and Pennsylvania, where the race is just as close, is going to be key to her following through on the projection that she will win the White House.
Highlighting the tense closeness of the likely general election race, Clinton and Trump are already going at it on a smorgasbord of issues, the latest being foreign policy. Just this past Thursday, Clinton took to attacking Trump head on in a speech she gave denouncing his “temperament” as unfit for the White House and the possession of the nuclear launch key.
Clinton, however, has, so far at least, been the most hurt by these attacks, seeing her once commanding lead over Trump in general election match up polling averages turn into a wavering, barely 1 percent lead in the aftermath of Trump’s continuous shots back at the Clinton campaign.
Still, the general election odds are squarely in the Democrats’ corner, with most major models still predicting a Democratic win. These models include the one produced by Moody’s Analytics firm and the one put out by Real Clear Politics. Should Sanders manage to clinch the Democratic nomination, the odds only get better for the Democrats. Most general election match up polling has Sanders remaining up over Trump by double digits.
However, when a Sanders/Trump match up was put before the respondents to this latest Florida poll, Sanders and Trump came out exactly even. Indeed, while the Real Clear Politics average of polling for Trump versus Clinton among Florida voters has Clinton up by 2.3 percent, Sanders in the same match up is up by only 1.7 percent. So, Florida may pose a challenge to Sanders come the general election.